Robusta coffee in 2024 forward
As of February 2024, the price of Robusta coffee surged to a 30-year high, reaching US153.23 per pound. This increase is largely due to heightened demand influenced by changing market perceptions of Robusta coffee, as well as supply challenges brought on by climate change and geopolitical conflicts, such as the situation in the Red Sea. While in October 2021, they hit a decade-high, marking the sixth year in a row of price increases, largely due to shortages of shipping containers.
Source: International Coffee Organization (2024)
According to the U.S. International Trade Commission, global demand for Robusta coffee is on the rise. In response, notable roasters like Blue Bottle and the UK’s Black Sheep have started offering 100% Robusta coffee options. Additionally, Nguyen Coffee Supply, a roaster specializing in Vietnamese Robusta, has made its way into mainstream retail, such as Whole Foods. Sahra Nguyen, the company’s founder, aims to challenge Robusta’s traditional image in the U.S. market by promoting high-quality Robusta cultivated with the same meticulous techniques typically used for Arabica. This push includes advocating for improved production practices, more selective harvesting, and innovative processing methods.
Incorporating more Robusta into coffee blends is becoming a popular way for roasters to manage rising costs. Demand side factors have boosted robusta green bean prices during the past twelve months. This shift is changing the narrative around single-origin versus blend coffees, as blends gain traction for their consistency and versatility. Notably, the increasing presence of blends in high-profile competitions like the World Barista Championships and World Brewers Cup has also boosted the perception of their quality.
In January 2024, Vietnam exported 3.77 million bags of Robusta coffee, a 66% year-over-year increase, as reported by the International Coffee Organization. The combination of record-high prices and the Tet holiday likely incentivized producers to release stockpiles they had previously held back, seizing the opportunity to profit.
Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, Uganda, and India produce over 90% of the world’s Robusta coffee. However, the impact of rising global temperatures has led traditionally Arabica-focused countries such as Mexico, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Colombia to consider cultivating Robusta as an alternative.
Robusta coffee was introduced to Vietnam by the French in 1908, and it reached South America in the 1930s. The invention of soluble coffee in the 1950s and the subsequent demand for coffee syrup and affordable blends further cemented Robusta’s role in coffee-producing regions. Today, Vietnam is the leading producer of Robusta, accounting for more than a third of global production.
Given the rising global demand for coffee, Robusta’s hardiness and adaptability make it a critical player in meeting this need. Its ability to grow in a variety of climates ensures its continued importance in the coffee industry. As producers and roasters strive to offset the rising costs and environmental challenges associated with Arabica, the high demand and prices for Robusta are likely to persist.
For instance, Indonesian coffee producers are now investing in both specialty Robusta and hybrids that blend characteristics of Robusta and Arabica. Additionally, a new grading scale for Robusta is being developed to distinguish between commercial and high-quality varieties. As prices continue to rise, there is growing recognition of the benefits of focusing on Robusta quality over sheer quantity, prompting farmers to invest in enhanced production practices.
With approximately 60% of a coffee’s final quality depending on the processing stage, improved harvest and post-harvest practices for Robusta are essential. Educating farmers on best practices, such as picking only ripe cherries, removing defects, and exploring new processing methods, can significantly elevate the quality of Robusta. While these practices have traditionally been associated with Arabica production, they are increasingly being applied to Robusta. Due to Robusta’s thicker mucilage layers, careful washed processing or fermentation with specific microorganisms can help prevent overfermentation and minimize off-flavors, resulting in a brighter cup profile.
